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PM, Sunak Fall Further In Poll Of CON Members As Pressure Mounts On Johnson

UK

The latest survey of support for Cabinet members among grassroot Conservative Party members shows both Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak falling down the league table of gov't ministers. In the April survey, Johnson's popularity has declined to +6.6, from +33.1 in March. Meanwhile, Sunak has fallen to the bottom of the table on a net rating of -5.1 from +7.9 previously.

  • Conservative Home reported that much of the reasoning behind the declining ratings was not due to the impact of the 'partygate' scandal, but views among grassroot Conservative members that the Johnson gov't and Sunak's Treasury policies are 'too left wing'. This follows Sunak's poorly-recieved spring statement in March combined with a previously-announced increase in National Insurance Contributions.
  • Political betting markets have shifted further in recent days, with 2022 now viewed as the most likely year for Johnson's exit from office. An implied probability of 46.3% is assigned to Johnson leaving Downing St. this year, up from 22.7% on 10 April . according to data from Smarkets. The implied probability of Johnson lasting until 2024 or later has fallen to 39.7%, from 51.6% on 12 April.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Year PM Johnson Leaves Office, %

Source: Smarkets.

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The latest survey of support for Cabinet members among grassroot Conservative Party members shows both Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak falling down the league table of gov't ministers. In the April survey, Johnson's popularity has declined to +6.6, from +33.1 in March. Meanwhile, Sunak has fallen to the bottom of the table on a net rating of -5.1 from +7.9 previously.

  • Conservative Home reported that much of the reasoning behind the declining ratings was not due to the impact of the 'partygate' scandal, but views among grassroot Conservative members that the Johnson gov't and Sunak's Treasury policies are 'too left wing'. This follows Sunak's poorly-recieved spring statement in March combined with a previously-announced increase in National Insurance Contributions.
  • Political betting markets have shifted further in recent days, with 2022 now viewed as the most likely year for Johnson's exit from office. An implied probability of 46.3% is assigned to Johnson leaving Downing St. this year, up from 22.7% on 10 April . according to data from Smarkets. The implied probability of Johnson lasting until 2024 or later has fallen to 39.7%, from 51.6% on 12 April.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Year PM Johnson Leaves Office, %

Source: Smarkets.

Keep reading...Show less