MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Clears Support

Price Signal Summary – Gold Clears Support

• S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday. This has confirmed a resumption of the current primary downtrend and in the process, the contract has breached all key Fibonacci retracement points of the bull cycle between Mar 15 - 29. EUROSTOXX 50 futures has failed to hold onto last week’s highs and is again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and the bear trigger.
• EURUSD remains vulnerable and has traded lower this morning, clearing support at 1.0758, the Apr 14 low and a short-term bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence. USDJPY is unchanged and continues to consolidate. The uptrend remains intact. Last week’s price gains marks an extension of the uptrend and reinforces underlying bullish conditions. AUDUSD is trading sharply lower again today as the current impulsive sell-off extends. The pair has probed support at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low and a key short-term bear trigger.
• Gold is lower today and the yellow metal has cleared support at the 50-day EMA, at $1927.7. The pullback from last week’s high of $1998.4 (Apr 18), highlights a bearish threat and attention is on key support that lies at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. WTI futures are trading lower today and price is approaching the 50-day EMA. A failure to challenge resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high, threatens the recent bullish theme.
• Bund futures are trading near recent lows. A bearish theme continues to dominate and a fresh cycle low on Friday reinforces this outlook. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and Friday’s move lower resulted in a fresh cycle low print of 117.27. The extension lower last week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1
• RES 2: 1.1009 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0887/0936 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
• PRICE: 1.0717 @ 08:12 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 1.0707 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0636 Low March 23 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0496 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD remains vulnerable and has traded lower this morning, clearing support at 1.0758, the Apr 14 low and a short-term bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 1.0727 has also been probed, the Apr 24 2020 low and this signals scope for a move towards 1.0636 next, the Mar 23 2020 low and the next major support. 1.0936 is key resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Accelerates

• RES 4: 1.3175 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3090/3147 High Apr 21 / High Apr 14
• RES 2: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.2877 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2736 @ 08:02 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 1.2699 1.382 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2676 Low Sep 23, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.2644 Low Jul 22 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2495 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan 21 bull leg

The downtrend in GBPUSD accelerated on Friday as price cleared the bear trigger at 1.2974, Apr 13 low. The break of this level and today’s follow through, confirms a resumption of bearish activity and an extension of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 1.2699 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.3147, the Apr 14 high. Initial resistance is at today’s 1.2877 intraday high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Dec 14 2020
• RES 3: 0.8512 High Mar 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8482 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8438 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8414 @ 06:30 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 0.8356 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

EURGBP traded sharply higher Friday and is holding on to its recent gains. The climb has resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8405, the Apr 11 high, which marked a key short-term resistance. Clearance of this level represents a bullish development and has also resulted in a test of 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. An extension would open 0.8512. Initial support lies at 0.8356, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 130.43 High Apr 24 2002
• RES 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 129.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 128.58 @ 06:34 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 127.46/26.98 Low Apr 20 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 125.87 Low Apr 15
• SUP 3: 125.17 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY is unchanged and continues to consolidate. The uptrend remains intact. Last week’s price gains marks an extension of the uptrend and reinforces underlying bullish conditions, signalling potential for a continuation of the trend. The focus on 129.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the important psychological 130.00 handle. A firm support is seen at 125.17, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 141.58 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 1: 140.00 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 137.41 @ 08:15 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 136.87 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 136.25 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.26 Low Apr 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.94 Low Mar 28

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish and short-term are considered corrective. The recent move through 137.50/53, the Feb 2 2018 and Mar 28 highs respectively, confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that has been in place since Mar 7. This has also highlighted an extension of the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a break and close above 140.00 next. Initial firm support is at 136.25.

AUDUSD TECHS: Impulsive Sell-Off Extends

• RES 4: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
• RES 3: 0.7458, High Apr 20/21
• RES 2: 0.7371 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7273 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7168 @ 07:03 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 0.7141 Low Feb 25
• SUP 2: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 0.7052 Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 0.6985 Low Jan 31

AUDUSD is trading sharply lower again today as the current impulsive sell-off extends. The pair has probed support at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low and a key short-term bear trigger. A clear break of this level would reinforce current bearish conditions and pave the way for a move towards 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. Initial resistance is seen at today’s intraday high of 0.7273. Firmer resistance however is at 0.7366, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 1.2901 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2871 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 1.2786 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2757 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2737 @ 08:26 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 1.2697/2622 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDCAD rallied sharply higher Friday and topped the upside directional trigger at 1.2676, Apr 13 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish theme, and today’s positive start reinforces current conditions. The focus is on 1.2786, 76.4% of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg. On the downside, Friday’s 1.2568 low is seen as a firm short-term support. Initial support is at 1.2697/2622, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 159.77 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 159.79 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 156.17/156.53 High Apr 14 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 155.00 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 153.64 @ 05:19 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 153.05/153.00 Low Apr 22 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bund futures are trading near recent lows. A bearish theme continues to dominate and a fresh cycle low on Friday reinforces this outlook. The move lower also confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 155.00, Apr 20 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Southbound

• RES 4: 129.756 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a key trend resistance
• RES 2: 128.282/310 20-day EMA / High Apr 8
• RES 1: 127.900 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 127.000 @ 05:24 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 126.660 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bobl futures resumed bearish activity on Friday, delivering a fresh trend low. This reinforces the primary downtrend that remains intact. The move lower also maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. The focus is on 126.480 next, the Jun 5 2014 low (cont). Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 128.310, the Apr 14 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 110.632/660 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• RES 1: 110.295 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 110.170 @ 05:38 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 110.060 Low Apr 22 / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower Friday and once again, delivered a fresh cycle low, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower also confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. The focus is on 110.188 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at 110.660, the Apr 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 121.88 High Apr 5
• RES 3: 120.96 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 119.58/73 20-day EMA / High Apr 11
• RES 1: 118.71 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 118.02 @ Close Apr 22
• SUP 1: 117.22 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and Friday’s move lower resulted in a fresh cycle low print of 117.27. The extension lower last week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, with moving average studies continuing to point south. This opens 117.04 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the 20-day EMA, at 119.58, is seen as a firm resistance.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 139.23 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 138.68 High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 2: 137.74 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 135.14 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.45 @ Close Apr 22
• SUP 1: 131.30 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

BTP futures traded lower Friday. Fresh cycle lows have again confirmed a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving averages remain in a bear mode too. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high. The 20-day EMA, at 135.14, marks initial resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Fails To Hold On To Late Week’s Highs

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• PRICE: 3709.00 @ 06:23 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 3684.00 Low Apr 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3626.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3551.60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3523.00 Low Mar 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures has failed to hold onto last week’s highs and is again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this support would resume recent bearish activity. For bulls, a break above 3883.00, the Apr 21 high, would open the 3944.00 key resistance point.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Resumes Bearish Activity

• RES 4: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 4509.00 High Apr 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4355.50 Low Apr 18
• PRICE: 4240.50 @ 06:44 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 4129.50 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4063.24 1.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday. This has confirmed a resumption of the current primary downtrend and in the process, the contract has breached all key Fibonacci retracement points of the bull cycle between Mar 15 - 29. This signals scope for weakness towards 4200.00 next and the key supports at 4129.50, Mar 15 low and 4094.25, the Feb 24 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4509.00, the Apr 21 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Starts The Week On A Bearish Note

• RES 4: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 3: $119.74 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $114.84 - High Apr 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $109.80 - High Apr 21
• PRICE: $103.46 @ 07:01 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: $102.72 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $97.57 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.58 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures are trading lower today as the contract starts the week on a bearish note. A failure to challenge resistance at $114.84, Apr 18 high, threatens the recent bullish theme and exposes support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $102.72 today. A break of this average would strengthen bearish conditions and suggest scope for a deeper decline towards $94.61, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $109.80.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $110.22 - High Mar 28
• RES 1: $105.42/109.20 - High Apr 21 / High Apr 18
• PRICE: $98.32 @ 08:22 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: $97.80 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $86.67 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures are trading lower today and price is approaching the 50-day EMA. A failure to challenge resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high, threatens the recent bullish theme. A break of the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $97.80 today, would strengthen the bearish threat and suggest scope for a deeper decline towards $90.37, the Mar 15 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $105.42.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 3: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $1952.0 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1914.6 @ 07:23 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold is lower today and the yellow metal has cleared support at the 50-day EMA, at $1927.7. The pullback from last week’s high of $1998.4 (Apr 18), highlights a bearish threat and attention is on key support that lies at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. This level also represents an important bear trigger. A break would open $1878.4 initially, the Feb 24 low. On the upside, $1998.4 has been defined as a key resistance.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $24.779 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.754 @ 08:42 BST Apr 25
• SUP 1: $23.647 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $23.173 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $22.863 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support

Silver remains soft following the reversal last week from its recent high of $26.222 on Apr 18. The metal has also started today’s session on a bearish note, reinforcing the current bear cycle and the bearish implications of the recent breach of the 50-day EMA. Support at $23.974, Mar 29 low, has been cleared. This opens $23.173, 76.4% of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, clearance of $26.222 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.