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Mixed Outlook for Month-End Models:

CROSS ASSET
  • Citi's prelim month-end FX model sees USD buying into end-April, with the average signal strength approximately twice its historical norm. Their model is driven by equity investors needing to reduce US hedges (80% of the signal).
  • In contrast, Morgan Stanley's calculations expect the USD to underperform against most others (with the exception of vs. JPY, CAD, NZD). As such, if the S&P 500 finishes the month lower, they see EUR/USD strengthening slightly after the WMR fix.
  • On asset rebalancing, Citi's model sees a rotation out of bond markets and into equities, dominated by inflow into US equity markets.
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