CANADA MAY RETAILS -0.8% VS FORECAST -0.6%, PRIOR +0.6%

MNI: Canada June Retails Fall And May Biggest Drop In A Year

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 19

MNI BRIEF: China To Boost Consumer Spending, New Industries

MNI BRIEF: China Enhances Fiscal Response To Boost Economy

MNI BRIEF: China To Promote Migrates' Rights, Reform Hukou System

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 586; OIL RIGS 477; GAS RIGS 103

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Barclays On Colombia Economy/BanRep Policy

COLOMBIA
  • Colombia remains the economy with the strongest momentum in the region. GDP growth published last week outperformed market expectations. The economy expanded 8.1% y/y in February, above the market consensus of 7.2%. This is in line with Barclays view that GDP could expand by 6.3% this year, outperforming the rest of LatAm.
  • Domestic demand remains very strong, so far political uncertainty has not had a major impact on activity, business confidence remains at high levels, and the increase in oil prices could support a rebound of oil production over the coming months.
  • The strong activity momentum is supporting tax collection, which has increased 27% y/y in the first two months of the year. This places the fiscal balance on a good track to keep outperforming the targets. The deficit for the first two months of the year has been one third of what it was in 2021 and already shows a reduction close to 1% of GDP. While Barclays have been expecting the deficit to reach 5.5% of GDP, below the official target of 6.1%, if the current trends are sustained, the deficit could fall closer to 5.0% of GDP this year and reach around 3.0% of GDP in 2023.
  • In terms of monetary policy, despite the strong growth, Barclays expect BanRep to maintain the tightening pace of 100bp at the April 29 meeting. The output gap still remains close to zero. Therefore, in absence of clear demand pressure, the preference of the central bank continues to be for continuing with a gradual approach in the tightening cycle.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.