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GfK Consumer Confidence Dives to Historic Low

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY MAY GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -26.5; APR -15.7r

  • German consumer sentiment deteriorated by 10.8 points to a historic all-time low of -26.5 in the May outlook, beating the previous Spring 2020 low at the pandemic onset.
  • Economic and income expectations as well as propensity to buy saw stark declines. Both the Ukraine war and soaring inflation of 7.3% y/y in March have outweighed optimism from easing pandemic restrictions.
  • Income expectations dropped to a 20-year low, with German consumers seeing the danger of recession as "high" as the economy continues to slow amidst soaring energy prices, ongoing supply chain issues and material shortages.
  • Just under 2% economic growth is expected for 2022.
  • German consumer confidence has been substantially harder hit than the eurozone aggregate, where April saw a slight uptick (albeit starkly pessimistic). The notable impact of the Ukraine war on Germany's energy-intensive manufacturing industry's growth outlook underpins this divergence.
  • The April reading was revised down by 0.2 points.

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