MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBPUSD Most Oversold Since COVID

Price Signal Summary – GBPUSD Most Oversold Since COVID

• S&P E-Minis remain bearish. The contract traded lower again on Tuesday, reinforcing current bearish conditions. Fresh short-term lows confirm a resumption of the current downtrend and signal scope for a continuation of this theme. EUROSTOXX 50 futures also traded lower Tuesday. The trend condition remains bearish following a reversal from last week’s highs, and price continues to trade below the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• The EURUSD downtrend remains intact and yesterday's resumption of weakness reinforces the bearish condition. The move lower also confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that defines a downtrend. GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday, extending the current downtrend. The pair has cleared 1.2974, Apr 13 low, as well as 1.2676 last printed in September 2020. The trend is in technically oversold territory: the 14d RSI is now at 22 - the lowest point since March 2020. AUDUSD remains vulnerable and traded lower again on Tuesday. The pair recently cleared support at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low and a key short-term bear trigger. The break of this level reinforces current bearish conditions and paves the way for a move towards 0.7095.
• WTI futures traded lower Monday. A bearish threat remains present despite the recovery from Monday’s low. A recent failure to challenge resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high, highlights a bearish threat. Gold traded lower Monday and remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has also cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from last week’s high of $1998.4 (Apr 18), continues to highlight a bearish threat and attention is on key support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low.
• Bund futures continue to trade higher this week. Short-term gains are considered corrective though. A bearish theme dominates and fresh cycle lows recently, reinforce this theme. The broader trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However recent gains do suggest scope for a stronger recovery near-term. Yesterday’s climb has resulted in a print and close, above the 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.0998 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0848/0936 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
• RES 1: 1.0758 Low Apr 14 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.0653 @ 06:18 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 1.0634 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0577 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.0494 Low Feb 22 2017
• SUP 4: 1.0454 Low Jan 1 2017

The EURUSD downtrend remains intact and yesterday's resumption of weakness reinforces the bearish condition. The move lower also confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that defines a downtrend. A continuation lower is likely near-term and the focus is on 1.0577, the lower band of a moving average envelope. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0936, the Apr 21 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Impulsive Sell-Off Extends

• RES 4: 1.3135 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3090/3147 High Apr 21 / High Apr 14
• RES 2: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.2772/2877 High Apr 26 / High Apr 25
• PRICE: 1.2597 @ 06:31 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 1.2560 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2495 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan 21 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.2423 2.236 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2375 2.382 proj of the Mar 23 - Apr 13 - 14 price swing

GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday, extending the current downtrend. The pair has cleared 1.2974, Apr 13 low, as well as 1.2676 last printed in September 2020. The trend is in technically oversold territory: the 14d RSI is now at 22 - the lowest point since March 2020 and the initial wave of lockdowns that followed COVID. A reversal pattern is required though to signal a base. The focus is 1.2495, a Fibonacci retracement.

EURGBP TECHS: Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Dec 14 2020
• RES 3: 0.8512 High Mar 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8501 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.8468 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8457 @ 06:36 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 0.8393/8363 Low Apr 26 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger

EURGBP maintains a firmer tone. Recent trong gains have resulted in a break of resistance at 0.8405, the Apr 11 high, which marked a key short-term resistance. The break of this level highlighted a bullish development and has also resulted in a break above 0.8435, the Apr 4 high. An extension would open 0.8512. Initial firm support lies at 0.8363, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidation Highlights A Bull Flag

• RES 4: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 130.43 High Apr 24 2002
• RES 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 129.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 127.63 @ 06:45 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 126.95 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 125.62 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY remains in consolidation mode as bulls pause for breath. This sideways activity also highlights the formation of a bull flag. The pattern reinforces bullish conditions with the uptrend still intact. Last week’s price gains marked an extension of the uptrend. The focus on 129.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the important psychological 130.00 handle. A firm support is seen at 125.62, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 141.67 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 1: 139.48/140.00 High Apr 25 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 136.00 @ 06:52 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 135.11 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 134.75 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 134.30 Low Apr 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.95 50-day EMA

The week’s pullback in EURJPY extended Tuesday, further suggesting the cross has entered a corrective phase. Price action made light work of support at 136.25, the 20-day EMA, which signals scope for a deeper pullback. This exposes key trend support at 134.30, Apr 5 low. The 50-day EMA - also a key support - intersects at 133.95. The broader uptrend remains intact. 140.00, the Apr 21 high, is the bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Activity Dominates

• RES 4: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
• RES 3: 0.7458 High Apr 20/21
• RES 2: 0.7349 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7261 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.7178 @ 06:57 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 0.7119 Low Apr 26 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 0.7052 Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 0.6985 Low Jan 31

AUDUSD remains vulnerable and traded lower again on Tuesday. The pair recently cleared support at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low and a key short-term bear trigger. The break of this level reinforces current bearish conditions and paves the way for a move towards 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. Initial resistance is seen at Monday’s intraday high of 0.7261. Firmer resistance however is set at 0.7349, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 2021
• RES 3: 1.2901 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2871/89 High Mar 15 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2830 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2810 @ 08:06 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 1.2634 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDCAD rallied sharply higher again Tuesday. The recent break of 1.2676, the Apr 13 high, and the subsequent follow through strengthens a bullish condition. The focus is on 1.2871 next, the Mar 15 high and the next key resistance at 1.2901, the Mar 8 high. On the downside, last Friday’s 1.2568 low is seen as a firm short-term support. Initial support is at 1.2634, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 159.42 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 156.29/37 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• RES 1: 155.77 Intraday high
• PRICE: 155.47 @ 05:00 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 153.05/153.00 Low Apr 22 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bunds futures continue to trade higher this week. Short-term gains are considered corrective though. A bearish theme dominates and fresh cycle lows recently, reinforce this theme. The move lower has also confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 156.37.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 129.350 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 128.830 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 128.195/310 20-day EMA / High Apr 8
• RES 1: 128.140 Intraday high
• PRICE: 128.000 @ 05:07 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 126.660 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 3: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bobl futures gains this week are considered corrective. Fresh cycle lows last week reinforce the primary downtrend. The move lower also maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. A resumption of weakness would open 126.480 next, the Jun 5 2014 low (cont). Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 128.310, the Apr 14 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 110.591/660 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• RES 1: 110.480 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 110.415 @ 05:17 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 110.060 Low Apr 22 / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s recovery is likely a correction. The contract traded to fresh cycle lows recently, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower also confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, that defines a downtrend. The focus is on 109.983 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 110.660, the Apr 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trades Above Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 121.11 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 120.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 119.79 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 119.67 @ Close Apr 26
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.22 Low Apr 25 / Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The broader trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish. However recent gains do suggest scope for a stronger recovery near-term. Yesterday’s climb has resulted in a print and close, above the 20-day EMA. Furthermore, price has also traded above a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high. An extension would open the 120.00 handle and 121.11, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 117.22.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Trading Near Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 138.68 High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 3: 137.95 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 136.12 High Apr 7
• RES 1: 134.68/135.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 132.88 @ Close Apr 26
• SUP 1: 131.30 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.00 Psychological round number

BTP futures continue to trade near its recent lows. Fresh cycle lows last week confirmed a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on the 130.00 handle next and key trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high. The 20-day EMA, at 134.68, marks initial resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3766.30/3883.00 20-day EMA / High Apr 21
• PRICE: 3643.00 @ 05:45 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 3619.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3551 60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3523.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Tuesday. The trend condition remains bearish following a reversal from last week’s highs, and price continues to trade below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Monday’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 3684.00, the Apr 12 low and a bear trigger, strengthening the case for bears. This opens, 3551.60, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a break above 3883.00, Apr 21 high, would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 4509.00 High Apr 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4303.50/4355.50 High Apr 26 / Low Apr 18
• PRICE: 4188.75 @ 06:53 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 4136.75 Low Apr 26
• SUP 2: 4129.50 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4094.25 Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4063.24 1.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis remain bearish. The contract traded lower again on Tuesday, reinforcing current bearish conditions. Fresh short-term lows confirm a resumption of the current downtrend and signal scope for a continuation of this theme. This has opened 4129.50, the Mar 15 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4509.00, Apr 21 high. Initial resistance though is seen at yesterday’s high of 4303.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 3: $119.74 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $114.84 - High Apr 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $109.80 - High Apr 21
• PRICE: $105.45 @ 06:57 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: $99.48 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $97.57 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.58 - Low Feb 25

Brent futures remain vulnerable despite the recovery from Monday’s low of $99.48. A recent failure to challenge resistance at $114.84, Apr 18 high and the move through the 50-day EMA Monday, which intersects at $102.80 today, signals potential for an extension lower. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would open $94.61, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $109.80.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $110.22 - High Mar 28
• RES 1: $105.42/109.20 - High Apr 21 / High Apr 18
• PRICE: $102.15 @ 07:15 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: $95.28 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $86.67 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures traded lower Monday. A bearish threat remains present despite the recovery from Monday’s low. A recent failure to challenge resistance at $109.20, Apr 18 high, highlights a bearish threat. A clear break of the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $97.98 today, would strengthen bearish conditions and suggest scope for a deeper sell-off towards $90.37, the Mar 15 low and an important bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at $105.42.

GOLD TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 3: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $1941.3 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $1898.9 @ 07:18 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold traded lower Monday and remains vulnerable. The yellow metal has also cleared support at the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the pullback from last week’s high of $1998.4 (Apr 18), continues to highlight a bearish threat and attention is on key support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. This level also represents an important bear trigger. A break would open $1878.4 initially, the Feb 24 low. On the upside, $1998.4 has been defined as a key resistance.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 3: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $24.661 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.532 @ 08:09 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: $23.402 - Low Apr 25/26
• SUP 2: $23.173 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $22.863 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support

Silver remains soft following the reversal last week from the Apr 18 high of $26.222. The metal traded lower Monday, starting the week on a bearish note. This reinforces the current bear cycle and the bearish implications of the recent breach of the 50-day EMA. Support at $23.974, Mar 29 low, has been cleared. This opens $23.173, 76.4% of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally. Clearance of $26.222 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.