MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 22

UK NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 48.6 (FCST: 50.0); OCT 49.9

EUROZONE NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 45.2 (FCST: 46.0); OCT 46.0

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY345.9 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, November 21

GERMANY NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 43.2 (FCST: 43.0); OCT 43.0

FRANCE NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 43.2 (FCST:44.5); OCT 44.5

MNI: GERMANY Q3 FINAL GDP 0.1% Q/Q (VS FCST 0.2%)

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Barclays: Laying the Ground for Normalisation

SNB
  • We expect the SNB to sound hawkish as it lays the ground to hike in September by 25bps, with a risk of a 50bps move.
  • As global inflation prints hit new highs, and is expected to remain sticky, Switzerland has not been immune, even if the strong CHF has provided a partial shield. The SNB is no longer comfortable staying put. Inflation uncertainty has pushed the SNB to shift its rhetoric. Complaints from the banking sector and savers about negative rates are growing, as well as over financial stability concerns.
  • We expect the SNB to lay the ground for normalisation in June. Our Taylor rule model suggests the Swiss policy rate should already be at 0.2%. We expect the SNB to sound hawkish at the June meeting, to lay the ground for a 25bp hike in September. However, we would not rule out the risk of: 1) a 25bp hike at the June meeting, or 2) assuming no June hike, a 50bp initial hike in September.
  • We expect normalisation to be supported by an upward revision of inflation forecasts by the SNB, while its growth forecast is unlikely to be revised down significantly (SNB forecast for 2022 growth was 2.5% at the March meeting). We expect a resilient Swiss economy to support the SNB to hike 25bp per quarter for the next four quarters to bring the rate marginally above zero, to 0.25%, at the June meeting next year.
  • The rate path in H2 23 will depend on whether the anticipated dissipation in price pressure arrives and how well growth holds up.
Homepagemarkets-real-timeSwiss National Bank Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.