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BNY Mellon: To Define Inflation Vigilance

SNB
  • For the first time since before the Global Financial Crisis, a rate hike just might be on the table at the policy meeting. If President Jordan follows through on his recent comments regarding 'vigilance' on inflation, policy changes will likely happen.
  • However, it won't be as simple as a rate hike: negative deposit rate adjustments aside, we also see potential tweaks to the thresholds of commercial banks’ reserve balances on which the charge is applied.
  • The SNB is unlikely to move on rates in isolation. Even if the SNB chooses not to hike, any firm commitment to end intervention should be considered a de facto tightening step. We are not expecting the SNB to actively engage in any form of quantitative tightening, as this would require selling of FX assets. As much of its euro-denominated portfolio is held in Eurozone sovereign assets, sales into ECB tightening and a general steepening environment is pro-cyclical for Eurozone-related volatility, and that does not serve Switzerland’s economic interests. However, as the marginal supply of francs dries up, another form of market adjustment will likely be through implied volatility.
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