-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessCredit Suisse Expect BCB To Hike One Last Time in August to 13.75%
- Credit Suisse expect that the Copom will increase the Selic rate by 50bps to 13.25%, in-line with the previous meeting’s comment that “the Committee foresees as likely an extension of the cycle, with an adjustment of lower magnitude.”
- As per the previous meeting, we had highlighted that the outlook for inflation had worsened, there was a high probability that the central bank would need to revise its inflation forecasts of 7.3% for 2022 and 3.4% for 2023, and that, as a result, the tightening cycle would likely need to continue in August. CS maintain these projections, given inflation expectations have since continued to rise.
- Domestically, the outlook for inflation is even more challenging. Economic activity surprised to the upside, with a sharp deceleration in the unemployment rate and more robust growth in domestic demand.
- Additionally, inflation picked up even more than previously expected. Since the previous meeting, Focus readout expectations have increased from 7.9% to 8.9% in 2022 and 4.1% to 4.4% in 2023.
- Overall, monetary policy is forward looking, and the potential decline in the level of current inflation due to tax cuts should matter only for their potential impact on future inflation. The government’s measures to reduce inflation this year should be seen as a risk for the path of future interest rates, given that inflation expectations for 2023 and 2024, calendar years that will be in the monetary policy horizon at the next meetings, will probably increase, as part of the tax cuts are expected to be reversed next year, and the risks for public accounts have also increased.
- In terms of guidance for the August meeting, CS believe that the central bank will leave open the possibility for another final hike. They expect that the monetary authority will hike rates one last time by 50bps in August, to 13.75%..
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.