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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
COMMODITIES
With the accelerated sell-off today, commodity prices are increasingly showing signs of U.S. inflation having "peaked". While energy prices remain 70% above their level a year ago, that's well off the doubled price level seen earlier this month.
- Agricultural commodity and retail gasoline prices, which never hit the heights of the commodities complex as a whole, appear to be rolling over.
- And on a year-on-year basis, industrial metals prices have fallen into negative territory over the past week.
- This is clearly translating into softening inflation expectations: 5Y TIPS-implied breakevens are now barely above where they were a year ago, and at 2.56%, are nearly 120bp below the March high.
- While there are plenty of other elements factoring into inflation concerns (services / rents), the sharp drop in commodity prices and the pullback in inflation expectations provides further evidence that we've seen a peak in inflation pressures.
Source: BBG, MNI Calculations
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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