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Morgan Stanley Increase LNG Forecast For 2023 and 2024

LNG

Morgan Stanley raised its price estimates for LNG in 2023 and 2024 with European demand intensifying global competition for supplies.

  • They see Asian LNG up to 39.50$/mmbtu in 2023 and 34.5$/mmbtu in 2024 but left nearer-term forecasts unchanged.
  • Europe looks set to cope this winter but will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer when China’s demand will recover from lockdowns to offset lower imports from other Asian buyers.
  • “We see a rising deficit next year,” according to a note from Morgan Stanley. “We see the need for prices to remain elevated for longer to continue constraining demand.”
  • European LNG demand could rise by almost 50m tons and still leave below-normal inventories for winter 2023-24.
  • They forecast a demand increase of 14% (10m tons) from China to partially offset lower purchases from some other Asian importers, including Japan and South Korea.

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