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$1.2000-50 Contains Ahead of ECB

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Expected demand emerged around $1.2000 in Wednesday trade, the rate touching a low of $1.1999 in late Europe morning business, retested early NY, before rate recovered through the 1600BST fix to $1.2039. Eased to $1.2027 post fix before closing the day at $1.2035.
  • EUR/USD extended the recovery to $1.2047 in Asia but said to have met decent headwinds ahead of $1.2050 from reported sovereign names.
  • Failure to break $1.2050 has seen rate drift off to $1.2031 ahead of the European open.
  • Support remains around $1.2000, suggestions interest could be option related, with technical support remaining at $1.1995(61.8% 1.1943-1.2080) ahead of $1.1975(76.4%).
  • Resistance $1.2049/61(61.8%-76.4% $1.2080-1.1999) ahead of $1.2080 with $1.2103 lurking in the background(Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope, 61.8% 1.2349-1.1704).
  • Focus on ECB monetary policy announcement 1145GMT, ECB press conference 1230GMT.
  • MNI: Holding Fire For Now As PEPP Debate Simmers. This week's ECB meeting is widely expected to be a low-risk event. Competing views on the economic trajectory and the lifespan of PEPP are starting to emerge, which could come into sharper focus by the time of the June meeting.
  • US Weekly Claims 1230GMT, EZ Consumer Confidence 1400GMT, US Existing Home Sales, Leading Index 1400GMT
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD maintains a bullish theme although gains have stalled at 1.2080, Tuesday's high. In pattern terms, Tuesday's candle appears to be a gravestone doji and if correct is a bearish signal. A deeper sell-off would expose firm S/T support at 1.1943, Apr 19 low where a break would strengthen a bearish case. For bulls, a climb above Tuesday's high negates the pattern, resumes recent gains and opens the 1.2116-25 resistance zone.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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