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Stronger In a Range


Weaker In A Range


Ending The Week On A Soft Note


Bearish Risk Growing


Stronger, But Still Vulnerable


SP500 PE Ratio vs. CPI Inflation

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  • Volatile reactions seen Thursday as the ECB announced no change in policy/guidance and release of a stronger than forecast US CPI
  • EUR/USD was shoved down from $1.2195 to $1.2144 in react to headline US CPI but spiked back to $1.2190 before rate settled around $1.2175 through to the close.
  • Rate touched a low of $1.2171 in early Asia before it edged to $1.2191, settling around $1.2190 through to the European open.
  • Mentioned support between $1.2145/30 contained Thursday's initial react and seen keeping upside in focus with resistance noted between $1.2190/1.2200, a break to expose stronger resistance into $1.2220 ($1.2218/19 Jun09 high/76.4% $1.1.2254-1.2104).
  • A break of $1.2130 to expose $1.2104/03, a move below $1.2100 to open a deeper move toward $1.2090 ahead of $1.2060/50.
  • Bundesbank publishes bi-annual projections 0630GMT. ECB Holzmann (hawk) 0800GMT.
  • US UofM 1400GMT. Fed officials remain in blackout ahead of FOMC.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD is unchanged and a near-term bearish risk remains present. This follows a sharp pullback Jun 3 that saw price trade through 1.2133, May 28 low. The break lower highlights potential for a deeper correction and attention remains on the 50-day EMA at 1.2111. The EMA represents a key area of support ahead of 1.2104, the Jun 4 low. On the upside, primary resistance is unchanged at 1.2266, May 25 high.