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US TSYS: 10-Year Yields Eye 4.50%, Would See Breakout Of Medium-Term Downtrend

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America

In addition to the technical levels already identified in U.S. 10-Year Tsy yields (4.50% the next obvious upside target, last trading 4.415%) it is worth noting that the benchmark continues to operate within the medium-term downtrend channel drawn off the ’23 high (upper boundary at 4.46% today).

  • Also worth highlighting that the 50-DMA crossed above the 200-DMA last week, forming a golden cross to signal the positive S/T momentum shift.
  • If sustained, this would deepen the risk of a further upside move in yields, at least from a technical analysis standpoint.
  • Tomorrow’s FOMC decision presents the key risk event this week.
  • Analysts are unanimous in expecting a 25bp rate cut, but there are varying opinions on the path of rates ahead and the number of ’25 cuts that the Fed will signal in its Dot Plot.
  • Click for our full preview.

Fig. 1: U.S. 10-Year Tsy Yield (%)

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In addition to the technical levels already identified in U.S. 10-Year Tsy yields (4.50% the next obvious upside target, last trading 4.415%) it is worth noting that the benchmark continues to operate within the medium-term downtrend channel drawn off the ’23 high (upper boundary at 4.46% today).

  • Also worth highlighting that the 50-DMA crossed above the 200-DMA last week, forming a golden cross to signal the positive S/T momentum shift.
  • If sustained, this would deepen the risk of a further upside move in yields, at least from a technical analysis standpoint.
  • Tomorrow’s FOMC decision presents the key risk event this week.
  • Analysts are unanimous in expecting a 25bp rate cut, but there are varying opinions on the path of rates ahead and the number of ’25 cuts that the Fed will signal in its Dot Plot.
  • Click for our full preview.

Fig. 1: U.S. 10-Year Tsy Yield (%)

Keep reading...Show less