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10Y Auction Preview: Hoping To End A Weak Run With $32B Sale

US TSYS/SUPPLY

The second coupon auction of the day (and the month) is the $32B 10Y Note re-open (CUSIP: 91282CHC8).

  • The 10Y has had a poor run of auctions, with the last three tailing, dragging down the running averages for indirect takeup and bid-to-cover (see table below).
  • In fact, outside of January's 0.5bp trade through, you have to go back to October 2021 to find a 10Y re-opening that traded through.
  • May's sale was a moderate improvement from the prior two sales, tailing by 1.1bp (3.448% high yield vs 3.437% when-issued yield) vs 2.3bp and 3.0bp for the prior two, and a relative bounce-back in periphery stats.
  • The current when-issued yield is printing 3.77%, which - like the solid but unspectacular 3Y Note sale earlier in the session - would mark the highest since March's auction (3.985%).
  • Timing: The 10Y note sale results will available shortly after the competitive auction closes at 1300ET.
High yieldWhen-issued yieldTrade through (tail)High - Median SpreadBid-to-coverPrimary Dealer PercentIndirect PercentDirect PercentOffering Amount
5 Auction Avg3.615%3.609%-0.68.22.4713.67%67.84%18.49%33.2
10-May-233.448%3.437%-1.18.52.4513.04%67.50%19.46%35
12-Apr-233.455%3.432%-2.39.12.3617.14%62.95%19.91%32
08-Mar-233.985%3.955%-3.09.62.3517.73%62.29%19.98%32
08-Feb-233.613%3.642%2.96.32.665.36%79.45%15.19%35
11-Jan-233.575%3.580%0.57.62.5315.06%67.02%17.92%32
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