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10Y BTP/Bund Spread Fails To Breach 170bps

BTP

The 10Y BTP/Bund spread tested 170bps for the first time since mid-December, but was unable to breach the level. The spread currently trades 4.8bps wider at 169.4bps.

  • Higher oil prices, a firmer USD and weakness in European equities have all contributed to periphery/semi-core underperformance, with spreads to Bunds wider across the board. BTP yields are 2 -4bps higher on the day, with the belly underperforming at present, while BTP futures trade 46 ticks lower at 118.75, some 30 ticks off the daily low.
  • On the issuance front, the first BTP auction of 2024 is not scheduled 'til next Thursday (Jan 11), but there is broad consensus among analysts (and MNI) that a syndication could potentially be announced this week. In this event, the 20-day EMA at 117.93 is the next downside level in BTP futures, with 115.70 (Dec 8 low) the key short-term support.
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