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10Y Government Bond Yield Testing Its 100DMA Resistance

CHINA
  • LT government bond yields have surging globally in the past two days amid rising concerns over stagflation risks.
  • Until now, we have seen that investors have been attributing more attention to the increase in global uncertainty rather than the rise in inflationary pressures, but volatility on the long end of the curve can remain elevated in the short term as inflation continues to surprise positively.
  • China 10Y yield is up nearly 10bps since Thursday and is currently testing its 100DMA at 2.97%; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 3.0160%, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2.46%-3.36% range.
  • On the downside, key support remains at 2.80% (61.8% Fibo retracement).
  • This week, investors will focus on money supply and aggregate financing September updates.
  • We previously saw that the sharp contraction in Chinese liquidity in the past year has been weighing on both domestic (i.e. tech equities) and international asset prices.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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