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10Y Yield Back Near 4%

US TSYS
  • After the knee-jerk sell-off reaction to 3.3% GDP, Treasury futures recovered, extended session highs in the last couple minutes, Mar'24 10Y taps 111-11.5 (+12.5), 10Y yield nears 4% to 4.0077% low.
  • Reuters headlines providing lift for Treasury futures in late trade:
    • ECB POLICYMAKERS OPEN TO START DISCUSSING FUTURE RATE CUTS IN MARCH IF DATA POINTS TO INFLATION HITTING 2% THIS YEAR: SOURCES
    • ECB POLICYMAKERS SAY MARCH PIVOT WOULD PAVE WAY FOR RATE CUT MOST LIKELY IN JUNE: SOURCES - Reuters News
  • Initial technical resistance at 111-21/112-26+ (20-day EMA / High Jan 12). Curves mildly flatter w/ 2s10s -0.706 at -21.281.
  • Cross asset summary: Crude higher (WTI +2.17 at 77.26), Gold firmer (+4.83 at 2018.72), stocks firmer: SPX eminis +19.5 at 4919.5 - still off yesterday's contract high of 4933.25.
  • Fast two reported earlier as Treasury futures broke upside AND downside range after Q4 advance GDP/core PCE, weekly claims data:
    • GDP Price Index (1.5% vs. 2.2% est, 3.3% prior)
    • GDP Annualized QoQ (3.3% vs. 2.0% est, 4.9% prior)
    • Personal Consumption (2.8% vs. 2.5% est, 3.1% prior)
    • Core PCE Price Index QoQ (2.0% vs. 2.0% est, 2.0% prior)
    • Initial Jobless Claims (214k vs. 200k est, 189k prior rev)
    • Continuing Claims (1.833M vs. 1.823M est, 1.806M prior)
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