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Free Access10Y Yield Remains ‘Low’ Despite Strong Foreigners Outflows and Rising Inflation
- Sell-side analysts have been constantly reviewing China 2022 growth forecast to the downside in recent weeks as the severe Covid lockdown policies imposed by the government have been significantly weighing on the domestic real economy.
- We saw that GS recently cut its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4% from 4.5%.
- Despite consumption growth expected to remain weak in the coming months due to elevated uncertainty, China officials remain committed to achieve a 5%-5.5% growth target in a challenging year with the upcoming 20th Party Congress in the fall.
- Alternative measures of growth (i.e. Li Keqiang, electricity consumption…) have been pricing in a significant downward revision in growth expectations; economic data showed this week that industrial production dropped by 2.9% YoY in April (vs. 0.5% rise exp.) and retail sales plummeted by 11.1% YoY.
- CBIRC Mao Hongjun mentioned at a briefing that China banks are facing pressure of NPL rebound due to Covid (though there are currently estimated to be at reasonable level of 1.82%).
- China 10Y yields keeps trading at relatively low level despite the strong foreigners outflows and the elevated inflationary pressures.
- The 10Y yield is currently testing the 2.8040% level, which represents the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2.4610% - 3.3580% range.
- Next support to watch on the downside stands at 2.74%.
- On the topside, key resistance stands at 2.8460% (200DMA).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.