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10Y Yield Retraces Lower Amid Growing Concerns Over Chinese Housing Market

CHINA
  • Even though the market selling pressure has eased following Evergrande's recent comments in a statement that it had 'resolved' one coupon payment due on Thursday, contagion risk had spread to other leveraged real estate developers with their bond prices falling sharply in the past few weeks.
  • For instance, the 15% December 2021 Fantasia Holdings Bond (another leading property developer in China) is currently trading at 66 cents on the Dollar, down from 100 in the end of July.
  • We previously saw that the policy tightening in addition to the sharp contraction in liquidity over the past year have been important drivers of the significant fall in Chinese domestic asset prices since February.
  • Hence, LT government bond yields, which have been very sensitive to Chinese economic data in recent years, have been retracing lower in the past few days.
  • The 10Y yield is down 5bps in the past week after failing to break through its 2.91% resistance (50% retracement); key support to watch on the downside stands at 2.80%, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2.46% - 3.36% range (2020/2021 low high).
  • A break below that level would open the door for a move down to 2.71%.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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