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12-Month Inflation Expectations Rise Slightly to 30.65%

TURKEY
  • The CBRT released its monthly survey of market participants. Inflation expectation in the next 12 months rose to 30.65% from 29.84% the month prior, while year-end inflation is estimated at 38.55% (Prior: 37.17%). 2023 GDP growth is seen at 3.8% (Prior: 3.7%) while 2024 GDP growth is estimated to be 4.5% (Prior: 4.6%). Year-end USD/TRY is seen higher at 26.18 compared to 23.09 prior.
  • “If the exchange rates do not move in an inflationary environment, it means that the lira is appreciating. Therefore, it is more meaningful to look at the real exchange rate. I do not think we will see any movement in the real exchange rate”, Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said as per Hurriyet. Yilmaz added that the central bank’s reserves will improve, and that the “FX-protected deposit program may not end at the end of the year, we need to discuss the conditions. A sudden stop is not right.”
  • Turkey’s tourism sector, which is starting to reflect rising costs in its prices, has become more expensive than competitors in other countries, Ekonomi report. While last-minute Russian tourists are already heading to Egypt, the main concern is the possibility of Europeans going elsewhere in 2024.
  • Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek is expected to meet industrialists and bankers today. There are no other major economic releases left on the docket.
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