13 Aug Primary Could Prove Good Indicator Of Final Election Result

Opinion polling in the run-up to the 13 August PASO primaries points towards a polarized political landscape in which it is difficult to project a likely frontrunner. The main opposition centre-right Together for Change (Juntos por el Cambio, JxC) alliance holds a narrow lead in most polling asking respondents to choose between coalitions. However, Finance Minister Sergio Massa - the presumptive candidate for the incumbent centre-left Peronist Union for the Homeland (Unión por la Patria, UP) - leads in most polling where individuals are asked for their preferred candidate.

• The PASO (Open, Simultaneous, and Obligatory primaries) are ostensibly used for coalitions to select their presidential candidate ahead of the general election on 22 October. However, given that all coalitions participate it can give a useful indicator of voter sentiment months ahead of the actual vote.
• Prior to the 2019 PASO, Peronist candidate Alberto Fernandez led incumbent President Mauricio Macri by a narrow margin. However, in the primary Fernandez won 48% of the vote to Macri's 32%. The strength of the Peronist vote both moved markets and cemented Fernandez as the clear frontrunner.
• The primary will decide the candidate for JxC, with former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich holding a narrow lead over Buenos Aires mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta polls. It will also decide how many electoral coalitions will be entitled to run in the general election, with candidates required to win at least 1.5% of the nationwide vote in the PASO to get on the ballot.