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150bps Of ECB Cuts Priced Through 2024

STIR

ECB-dated OIS contracts briefly priced less than 150bps of rate cuts through 2024 for the first time since the Fed's December meeting, with ~150bps of cuts shown at typing.

  • Contracts now price just below a 50% chance of a rate cut through the March meeting, with 12bps priced.
  • Euribor futures show 1.0-2.5 lower through the blues.
  • Any core FI rallies remain capped ahead of today’s event risk, with Bunds showing below yesterday's lows on a couple of occasions.
  • The Eurozone-wide flash inflation print for December highlights the European regional docket today, with releases received to date implying print will be a touch below the 2.9% Y/Y headline consensus.
  • Elsewhere, the main focus will be on the US labour market report at 1330GMT.
    Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
    Jan-243.896-0.60
    Mar-243.782-12.0
    Apr-243.568-33.4
    Jun-243.274-62.8
    Jul-243.013-88.9
    Sep-242.776-112.6
    Oct-242.582-132.0
    Dec-242.398-150.4
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