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175bp+ In Fed Hikes Priced By September Meeting

STIR

Current Fed rate path pricing is for 58bp of hikes by Jun, 118bp by Jul, 177bp by Sep. That roughly implies a 50bp raise in Jun, a good chance of a 75bp hike by July , definitely one 75bp by Sep.

  • Assuming no inter-meeting moves of course. In the old days of quarter-point raises, the current pricing would be like 7 rate hikes over the next three scheduled meetings.
  • How quickly things change: June FOMC previews that went out Friday morning had titles like "50 is the new 25", BNY Mellon's note this morning was "75 is the new 50".

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