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###(2/3) ECB views continued: * TD.........>

ECB VIEW
ECB VIEW: ###(2/3) ECB views continued:
* TD securities: Look for ECB to announce QE at E30bln p/m for 12-months,
coupled with unchanged forward guidance (QE until Dec 2018 or beyond if needed)
and remain firm on sequencing (rates will not rise until well past end of QE)
* UBS: ECB to cut QE to E30bln p/m for 9-months, leave option open to extend or
increase QE if needed depending on data and reiterate rates 'likely to stay at
current levels for an extended period of time, and 'well past' end of QE.
* Goldman: Maintain our dovish view, expect ECB to announce 12-month tapering
worth a cumulative E360bln, possibly tapering in a linear way, but more likely
via a reduced monthly rate of E30bln, QE cease by end-2018.
* Citi: More bearish view of between E150-E200bln envelope for 1H-18 or a
similar hawkish surprise like E20bn for 9-mth.
* HSBC: Base case is for ECB to reduce QE to E40bln p/m with a 6-mth extension.
* Morgan Stanley: ECB to cut purchases to E30bln p/m for 9-months without a firm
end date, but further extension limited due to 33% limit.

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