2/3 Of Voters Say Trump Guilty Verdict Wouldn't Impact Voting Intention

Observers are divided on how a guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan hush money trial may impact the presidential election race. One prevailing view is that although Trump’s various legal issues are ‘baked in,’ a small portion of moderate Republicans could be swayed, which could be sufficient to influence the result considering the fine margins.

• A new PBS News/Marist poll has found that, “2 in 3 registered U.S. voters say a guilty verdict would have no effect on whom they plan to vote for in the presidential election.”
• PBS notes: “25 percent of Republicans said they would be even more likely to vote for Trump if he were found guilty... while 27 percent of Democrats said they would be less likely to vote for him...”
• CNN notes that views have changed little over the trial: When asked before the trial whether Trump did something illegal, 46% of voters agreed. After closing statements, it was still 46%.
• Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said if Trump “ends up getting found guilty, I think it makes it much less likely for him to win. But [Democrats] don’t need it in order to win.”
• Republican strategist Douglas Heye said he thought a guilty verdict would “give a subset of voters something to think about, but not a ton of voters.”

Figure 1: “Are you more or less likely to vote for Donald Trump in November if he is found guilty or not guilty in the hush money trial?”