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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Observers are divided on how a guilty verdict in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan hush money trial may impact the presidential election race. One prevailing view is that although Trump’s various legal issues are ‘baked in,’ a small portion of moderate Republicans could be swayed, which could be sufficient to influence the result considering the fine margins.
- A new PBS News/Marist poll has found that, “2 in 3 registered U.S. voters say a guilty verdict would have no effect on whom they plan to vote for in the presidential election.”
- PBS notes: “25 percent of Republicans said they would be even more likely to vote for Trump if he were found guilty... while 27 percent of Democrats said they would be less likely to vote for him...”
- CNN notes that views have changed little over the trial: When asked before the trial whether Trump did something illegal, 46% of voters agreed. After closing statements, it was still 46%.
- Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said if Trump “ends up getting found guilty, I think it makes it much less likely for him to win. But [Democrats] don’t need it in order to win.”
- Republican strategist Douglas Heye said he thought a guilty verdict would “give a subset of voters something to think about, but not a ton of voters.”
Figure 1: “Are you more or less likely to vote for Donald Trump in November if he is found guilty or not guilty in the hush money trial?”
Source: PBS News Hour/NPR/Marist Poll
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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