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FED: /2019-20 Fed Rate Outlook: The most frequent Fed rate outlook among 26
analysts (who have expressed an explicit view on the subject) is that the Fed
will cut by 25bps twice between July and December / March 2020.
- That view is shared by 9 analysts: BMO, BNP, CIBC, ING, JPM, NatWest, Nomura,
Wells Fargo, Westpac.
- 7 analysts see no rate moves through 2019 / 2020 (or for an indefinite
period): Citi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Scotiabank, TD, UBS.
- 6 analysts see three 25bps cuts between July and March / early 2020: ABN AMRO,
BofAML, Commerzbank, Danske, Deutsche, and Societe Generale.
- 1 sees no change in 2019 and 75bps in cuts in 2020: Unicredit.
- 2 analysts are slightly more aggressive, Nordea seeing four 25bps cuts over
the next year, and Barclays seeing a 50bps cut in July followed by 25bps in
September. Standing alone, Rabobank sees a 25bps cut in July, followed by 5 cuts
in 2020 and 1 cut in 2021.
- For the June meeting, no analysts see the Fed taking action on rates.
- Notably, no analysts forecast a Fed rate increase on the immediate horizon.

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