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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- While CPI prints are expected to reach 4% in April/May, mostly driven by the surge in fuel prices, NBP policymakers mentioned at several occasions that they expect the spike in inflation to be 'temporary' and that inflationary pressures should ease in the second half of this year.
- For instance, MPC member Grażyna Ancyparowicz mentioned this week that she was expecting rates to remain steady in Poland until the end of her term in February 2022 and inflation to come back within NBP target rate of 1.5% - 3.5%.
- Two weeks ago, former NBP governor Marek Belka warned that inflation risks are 'spiraling out of control' and that the NBP is 'consciously seeking to stoke CPI'.
- The bond market is currently showing that inflationary pressures may remain firm longer than what NBP policymakers expect. The chart below shows that Poland 2023 breakeven inflation rose above the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band this week.
- We will see if the breakeven rate will start to ease in the second half of this year as fuel prices stabilize (we saw breakeven inflation rates and inflation swaps have been very sensitive to ST prices movements in oil and equity markets in the past cycle).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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