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Free Access2023 "Dots" Would Probably Drift Lower If Published Today (2/2)
Mester and Bowman appear the most convinced that another hike (or more) is potentially required; Bostic and Harker have most forcefully argued for a pause.
- Several participants noted that the necessity for a further hike has been offset by rising long-end market yields (notably Bowman has softened her language on hikes, with Daly specifically citing higher yields equal to around one hike).
- Of the 12 “Dots” who in September eyed a further hike by year-end, we’d guess that only 8 or so would remain in that camp if they had to submit projections today (Barkin, Daly, Waller, Williams potentially dropping to the lower 5.25-5.50% camp), making a “hold” median via an 11-8 majority.
Participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate - September 2023Source: Federal Reserve, MNI
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.