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2023 "Dots" Would Probably Drift Lower If Published Today (2/2)

FED

Mester and Bowman appear the most convinced that another hike (or more) is potentially required; Bostic and Harker have most forcefully argued for a pause.

  • Several participants noted that the necessity for a further hike has been offset by rising long-end market yields (notably Bowman has softened her language on hikes, with Daly specifically citing higher yields equal to around one hike).
  • Of the 12 “Dots” who in September eyed a further hike by year-end, we’d guess that only 8 or so would remain in that camp if they had to submit projections today (Barkin, Daly, Waller, Williams potentially dropping to the lower 5.25-5.50% camp), making a “hold” median via an 11-8 majority.

Participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate - September 2023Source: Federal Reserve, MNI

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