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2023 EGB/EU issuance likely to exceed pandemic highs

EUROZONE ISSUANCE
  • 2023 EGB / EU issuance is expected to exceed the previous high of 2021 by some margin (see the table below).
  • The MNI Markets team pencils in E1.46tn of EGB+EU+EFSF+ESM issuance in 2023, up from E1.36tn in nominal terms in 2021 and E1.41tn in cash terms in 2021.
  • Record high issuance is expected from the EU and Germany while every country except Greece is expected to issue more in 2023 than in 2022.
  • Greece is the outlier because it has spent the past few years making early repayments to international creditors such as the IMF (which has now been fully repaid). It also holds very high cash balances which would enable it to remain fully funded for around 3 years.
  • Portugal and Spain have yet to announce their funding plans for 2023 - we would expect announcements next week from them but have penciled in what we believe to be fairly conservative figures.
  • We will release our Eurozone Issuance Deep Dive publication next week with our full expectations for 2023 issuance. In the meantime, we have updated our EGB / gilt auction calendar for 2023 which is available here.

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