28 May Regional Votes To Signal Party Strength Ahead Of General Election

Three of Spain's autonomous communities go to the polls to elect their regional legislatures on 28 May. Given that this is a general election year, the outcome of the elections in Castilla-La Mancha, Aragon, and Extremadura will be scrutinised more closely than might usually be the case.

• In all three communities, PM Pedro Sanchez's centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) governs either as a majority (Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura) or at the head of a coalition (Aragon). However, latest opinion polling shows the PSOE having lost support in all three communities since the last election in 2019.
• With the PSOE and the leftist Podemos having lost support, the centre-right main opposition People's Party (PP) and the right-wing nationalist Vox have gained momentum. In each community it looks to be a tight race between the next regional gov't being a PSOE-led leftist coalition or a right-wing PP-Vox alliance.
• This also mirrors polling for the general election, seen as likely in December at the end of Spain's six months as the helm of the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.
• The PP leads nationwide but is set to fall short of a majority, meaning it could be forced into a coalition with Vox. This would be the first time that an avowedly right-wing party has been in power in Spain since the restoration of democracy in the 1970s.
• This scenario could see major tensions emerge nationally between autonomous communities with a significant degree of devolution (Catalonia, Basque Country) given Vox's anti-regionalist stance, as well as between Madrid and Brussels.