MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr Aims For Broad Consensus On Capital Plan

FED'S BARR: WE THINK FAIRLY SOON WE CAN ADJUST PACE OF QT

FED BARR: EXPECT BROAD, MATERIAL CHANGES TO BASEL III PROPOSAL

MNI EM China Daily Summary: Friday, March 22

MNI China Press Digest Mar 22: Autos, Local Gov, Real-Estate

MNI: PBOC Drains Net CNY11 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rates Unchanged

Bond Supply Calendar: Long BoE APF Sales on Monday

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 624; OIL RIGS 509; GAS RIGS 112

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction Monday

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

2s5s Inverts For the First Time Since Feb’20

US TSYS
  • Risk-off sentiment has dominated FI markets today, with the US coming back from holiday and driving a substantial rally before a partial reversal of the move later on as Treasuries belatedly followed a bounce in equities (S&P 500 close to Friday’s high, Nasdaq touches high since Jun 28).
  • Headlines indicate that China tariff discussions could disappoint, removing only $10B worth of the duties imposed by Trump on approximately $370B worth of imports from China.
  • With the front end lagging the rally further along the curve (2Y -2bps vs 5Y, 10Y and 30Y -6-7bps), the curve has flipped back into inversion in the case of 2s10s (last mid June) and for the first time for 2s5s since Feb-2020.
  • Having initially been driven by a sizeable decline in real yields, falling commodity prices have since seen a greater pivot towards breakevens leading yields lower, with the 5Y breakeven sliding 9bps to 2.55% which aside from Friday’s fleeting low of 2.52% is the lowest since Oct 1 and more firmly at pre-taper levels.
  • TYU2 has pulled back from session highs of 120-07 having briefly cleared resistance at Friday's high of 120-04, potentially opening key resistance at 120-19+ (May 26 high) as the bull cycle remains in play.
  • With a heavy docket tomorrow, the FOMC minutes and ISM services in particular come into focus with the heightened sensitivity to slowing growth.
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.