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30Y Mortgage Rate Back At Highs Since 2001

  • MBA composite mortgage applications fell -0.8% (purchases -0.3%, refis -1.9%) in the week to Aug 11.
  • It came with a further push higher in the 30Y conforming rate, up 7bps to 7.16% for a joint cycle high with Oct'22 for the highest since 2001. The mortgage rate has increased nearly 100bps from recent lows of ~6.2% in late Jan/early Feb.
  • This continued push higher in rates, with a spread to 10Y Treasury yields hovering around 300bps, has unsurprisingly dampened mortgage demand with the level of purchase applications close to Feb’23 lows for otherwise the lowest since the 1990s.

30Y mortgage rate (white), 10Y Tsy yield (pink), spread (red) and level of purchase applications (green)Source: Bloomberg

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