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30YY Taps 2.9268, May 2019 Level

US TSYS

FI markets trading broadly weaker after the early closing bell (Globex closes normal time at 1700ET), near late lows as 30YY hits 2.9268 high -- last seen May 2019.

  • Little delay in post-US data selling into bid that developed after steady ECB policy annc. Retail Sales in-line w/ estimates (+0.5%), weekly claims slightly higher (+185k) continuing claims lower (1.475M) while Import/Export prices stronger than expected in all areas.
  • Eurodollar futures under heavy pressure as 50bp rate hike chance on the rise again after NY Fed Williams sees 50bp hike in May as a "very reasonable option" in the Fed's effort to "get inflation back to 2%." while they can debate MBS sales further down the road."
  • No obvious headline or technical drivers in late morning trade to explain the move, some desks noting carry-over selling in 5s-10s on post-ECB sell positioning.
  • After bear flattening in first half, yield curves looking mixed after the bell, off lows: 2s10s at 37.355 (+2.909) vs. 28.308 low; 5s30s at 4.177 (-.0151) vs. 2.136 low.

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