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3m/3m Real Retail Sales Negative For 19th Consecutive Month

ITALY DATA
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Italian February nominal retail sales rose 0.1% M/M (vs -0.1% prior) and 2.4% Y/Y (vs 1.0% prior). The Bloomberg consensus of 0.2% M/M was formed of just three analysts.

  • Real retail sales also rose 0.1% M/M (vs -0.2% prior), and 0.3% Y/Y (vs -2.1% prior).
  • However, real retail sales remain subdued on a 3m/3m basis, falling 0.3% in March (vs -0.1% prior). This was the 19th consecutive month that real sales have been negative over a 3m/3m horizon.
  • The recent softness of Italian real retail sales supports recent downgrades in analysts’ Q1 ’24 household consumption forecasts, which are currently 0.2% Y/Y (vs 0.8% Y/Y in late Jan/early Feb).
  • Food sales fell 0.8% 3M/3M in March, while non-food sales were flat for the second month in a row.
  • Looking ahead, while retail confidence remained at expansionary levels in the latest EC and ISTAT surveys, the March readings were below 2023 average levels.

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Italian February nominal retail sales rose 0.1% M/M (vs -0.1% prior) and 2.4% Y/Y (vs 1.0% prior). The Bloomberg consensus of 0.2% M/M was formed of just three analysts.

  • Real retail sales also rose 0.1% M/M (vs -0.2% prior), and 0.3% Y/Y (vs -2.1% prior).
  • However, real retail sales remain subdued on a 3m/3m basis, falling 0.3% in March (vs -0.1% prior). This was the 19th consecutive month that real sales have been negative over a 3m/3m horizon.
  • The recent softness of Italian real retail sales supports recent downgrades in analysts’ Q1 ’24 household consumption forecasts, which are currently 0.2% Y/Y (vs 0.8% Y/Y in late Jan/early Feb).
  • Food sales fell 0.8% 3M/3M in March, while non-food sales were flat for the second month in a row.
  • Looking ahead, while retail confidence remained at expansionary levels in the latest EC and ISTAT surveys, the March readings were below 2023 average levels.