August 28, 2024 06:43 GMT
40bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year End
STIR
SONIA markets little changed.
- Futures -0.5 to +2.0.
- BoE-dated OIS prices ~4.5bp of cuts for Sep and ~40bp of easing through year end
- That compares to ~5bp & ~42bp late Friday.
- Recent BoE speak continues to refrain from signalling a need for back-to-back cuts, stopping the market from fully discounting sequential easing at meetings through early ’25.
- BoE hawk Mann will appear on a panel discussing “The Value of Economic Research for Policy” (13:15 London).
- There isn’t much in the way of tier 1 macro data releases due today.
- Oil swings will continue to be eyed, given spill over into FI markets in recent weeks.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Sep-24 | 4.906 | -4.4 |
| Nov-24 | 4.687 | -26.3 |
| Dec-24 | 4.549 | -40.1 |
| Feb-25 | 4.354 | -59.6 |
| Mar-25 | 4.214 | -73.6 |
| May-25 | 4.050 | -90.0 |
| Jun-25 | 3.956 | -99.4 |
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