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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- The CPI miss has seen the 5Y breakeven is down -8bps today at 2.62% (helped by oil also falling -2.5%), levels last seen prior to the Jul 27 FOMC and taking a sizeable step nearer recent lows of 2.5%.
- Separate longer-term measures of 5Y5Y inflation swaps meanwhile have nudged higher to 2.56%, still close to the recent average but some 15bps off recent lows that had been more consistent with the Fed’s 2% PCE target.
- The combination sees the spread narrow to -5bps (5Y5Y swap -5YB/E), implying moderately less medium-term inflation overshoot from perceptions of long-term inflation but still far below the circa +50bp gap pre-pandemic.
5Y5Y inflation swap (yellow), 5Y breakeven (white) and spread (green)Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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