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64bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced, Macro Matters Eyed

STIR

’24 BoE-dated OIS contracts are little changed to 3bp firmer, as yesterday's removal of rate cut premium extends.

  • ~64bp of ’24 cuts are priced, with the first 25bp cut fully discounted come the end of the August MPC.
  • Ranges witnessed in recent weeks remain intact.
  • SONIA futures are little changed to 3.5bp lower.
  • The move in GBP STIRs comes as Tsys and Bunds print a little lower on the day.
  • Some dovish ECB speak has limited the sell off in bonds.
  • There is little of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave focus on broader macro news flow and data.
  • Friday will see the release of the BoE’s inflation attitudes survey.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.201+1.2
May-245.172-1.7
Jun-245.079-11.0
Aug-244.938-25.1
Sep-244.826-36.3
Nov-244.668-52.0
Dec-244.548-64.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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