Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ECB
Dec ECB hike pricing on OIS is now closer to 50/50 for 75bp vs 50bp (62bp), with a 3bp increase this morning.
- Conditions have been there the last few days for a move higher: on balance communications have leaned hawkish, and sentiment / survey data this week incl PMIs have been solid.
- Pricing since the last meeting had bottomed out around 55bp on Nov 17 after a Bloomberg sources article pointed to a 50bp as opposed to 75bp increase. But as we said at the time, 75bp vs 50bp chances still looked evenly balanced, as much will depend on inflation data on Nov 29-30 and could tip the balance either way.
- There are other ways to get to 75bp too - MNI's ECB sources have indicated that doves might offer to back another 75bp hike if in exchange the ECB decides to wait until rates peak before starting QT.
- But until we get the inflation data, 50bp is still the path of least resistance and 75bp probably doesn't merit much higher than 50% prob.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok