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8.50 Holds in USD/TRY Ahead of CBRT, Kavcioglu to Stay Cautious

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades flat to lower around the open in line with early weakness in BBDXY.
  • The cross failed to move below the 8.50 handle yesterday, on the back of a hawkish surprise from the FOMC meeting which roiled EM FX markets.
  • Today's focus shifts to the CBRT, which is broadly expected to keep rates steady at 19.00%, despite moderating inflationary pressures.
  • Kavcioglu will likely stick to the script on policy continuity and keeping rates above inflation, but the key factor will be to look for key phraseology changes on the Bank's assessment of inflation.
  • Kavcioglu will be cognizant of the risks to TRY instability and premature rate cut expectations from sounding too dovish - so will likely temper his positive assessment of price factors somewhat.
  • With the outcome broadly priced-in, markets are not anticipating any substantial volatility in the absence of any major surprises.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.4969, Sup2: 8.4345, Res1: 8.6399, Res2: 8.6927
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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