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80bp Of '24 Cuts In Wake Of Dovish BoE Takeaways

STIR

The dovish moves in the BoE vote split and rhetoric see some fresh rate cut premium priced in.

  • GBP STIRs a little off initial knee-jerk extremes.
  • SONIA futures now +1.0 to +15.0 on the day, with the back of the reds leading.
  • BoE-dated OIS moves to price ~80bp of ’24 cuts vs. ~76bp pre decision.
  • 19bp of cuts are priced through the June meeting, equating to ~76% odds of a 25bp cut come the end of that event.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.138-5.1
Jun-244.999-19.0
Aug-244.825-36.4
Sep-244.690-49.9
Nov-244.523-66.6
Dec-244.385-80.4

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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