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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
SONIA futures at/a little off session highs with core global bond markets off best level and gilts unable to hold a rally above 100.00.
- Contracts flat to +7.0 through the blues.
- The strip remains supported following yesterday’s dovish movement in the BoE vote split and subsequent dovish comments from Governor Bailey.
- SFIZ4 hasn’t managed to test/breach yesterday’s high (95.700).
- A break there would point to the potential for a deeper bullish move after this week’s break of the downtrend in place since late December.
Fig. 1: SFIZ4 Futures
- Resistance above there comes in at the early Feb intraday lows/highs cluster (95.765/770)
- BoE-dated OIS pricing stabilises around ~81bp of ’24 cuts.
- ~20bp of cuts are priced through June, which is now seen as the most likely starting point for the easing cycle, based on sell-side views that we have seen.
- Looking ahead, there will plenty of interest in Monday’s comments from former for hawkish BoE dissenter Mann.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| May-24 | 5.121 | -6.8 |
| Jun-24 | 4.987 | -20.3 |
| Aug-24 | 4.828 | -36.2 |
| Sep-24 | 4.679 | -51.0 |
| Nov-24 | 4.515 | -67.4 |
| Dec-24 | 4.378 | -81.1 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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