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A 25bps Hike This Week Is Likely To Be Perceived As 'Dovish' (negative for PLN)

POLAND
  • Following the positive surprise in inflation on Friday, with CPI surging to a -year high to 6.8% YoY, thee NBP is likely to continue the pace of its tightening cycle by raising its policy rate by at least 40bps.
  • Even though NBP Glapinski refused to comment if last month's hike was the start of a tightening cycle, Polish policymakers could receive external pressure if they decide to maintain the policy rate unchanged.
  • Consensus is now expecting a 25bps hike on November 3 (was unchanged on Friday before CPI), but it is likely that anything below 40bps will be perceived as 'dovish' by the market.
  • Hence, a 25bps hike could lead to further selling pressure on PLN, which has recently been trading a multi months lows against major crosses.
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