A$ Back Below 0.6300, RBA SoMP & Q3 Real Retail Sales Out Today

AUD/USD lost 1 cent from yesterday's highs, touching a low of 0.6272 overnight, amid broad USD gains. This is fresh lows back to October 24. We are at slightly firmer levels now, last around 0.6290. Firmer UST yields, particularly at the short-end coupled with lower equities, helped drive further USD outperformance. Today's focus will rest on the RBA SoMP and Q3 real retail sales.

• The RBA already updated some forecasts when it released policy statement earlier in the week, so today's report may not shift market sentiment too much. Q3 real retail sales are expected to rise 0.4%, versus +1.4% in Q2, although the forecast range is quite wide (flat to 1.7%).
• Lower commodity prices were evident overnight across aggregate (-1.3%) and base metal (-1.82%) indices. Iron ore is slightly higher though, back to $82/tonne.
• The US VIX index edged down towards the low 25% region overnight, despite the 1% drop in the S&P500. AUD/JPY remained on the backfoot though, touching 93.00, before stabilizing somewhat, last 93.25/30.
• AUD/GBP rose though after BoE delivered a dovish rate hike. The pair is back to 0.5635/40, note the simple 200 day-MA comes in at 0.5666.