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A Broadly Dovish SEPH Report

CANADA DATA
  • Payroll employment fell -47k back in August, contradicting the 40k increase seen in the labour survey (which was followed by a 64k increase in Sept).
  • The vacancy rate eased 0.1pts to 3.8% as it continued towards the 3.2% averaged in 2019. It has fallen 1pt from the 4.8% at the start of the year and a cycle peak of 5.7% in late 2021/1H22.
  • Further, the fixed-weight measure of wage growth slowed sharply from 4.4% to 2.6% Y/Y. It can be noisy from month-to-month, but it pokes below the 2.7% seen in January for its softest since Feb’22.
  • Coming in softer than the various series in the more timely labour report isn’t anything new for the this fixed-weight measure, but the difference is now quite large compared to the 4-5% range seen for regular wage growth (something the BoC is keen on seeing moderate).

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