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A busy period for MPC speakers (3/3)

BOE
  • This week we will hear from Haskel as a panellist at an econometrics seminar on inflation and expectations tomorrow as well as from Pill tomorrow. Haskel's comments probably matter less from a market perspective as he seems some way from cutting and will leave the MPC after the August MPC meeting while Pill's comments will be more closely followed to see if there is a further dovish tilt.
  • Last week’s main data of course saw the release of inflation and labour market data which we reviewed here. The MNI Markets team now looks for around a 10% probability of a first cut in May (down from 15% post-March MPC), have also reduced our expectation of a first cut in June to 30% (down from 35%), have maintained our 40% probability view of an August first cut but see a 20% probability (up from 10%) of the first cut being delayed beyond August. Furthermore, seven sellside analysts changed their BOE calls in the wake of last week’s data and other global events.
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