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A$ Down On Risk Pullback, But Bull Cycle In Play

AUD

Most of the G10 was down against the greenback on Friday and the Aussie was a mid-range performer. AUDUSD fell to a low of 0.6625 on the back of growing concern re European banks. It is now trading slightly higher at 0.6651. The USD index rose 0.6%.

  • AUDUSD trend conditions remain bearish but the bull cycle begun on March 10 is now in play. But the move higher is considered corrective. The 20-day EMA has been broken and opens up resistance at the 50-day EMA of 0.6769. If this is breached then the bullish theme would be strengthened. Initial support is 0.6625, the March 24 low.
  • Aussie fell 0.7% against the yen and is now around 86.84. But it rose 0.2% versus the kiwi to 1.0719 and 0.1% against the euro to 0.6177. AUDGBP is down 0.1% to 0.5436.
  • Equity markets were mixed on Friday with the Eurostoxx down 1.8% but the S&P 500 up 0.6%. VIX fell almost 1pp to 21.7%. WTI oil prices fell 1.1% to $69.20/bbl. LME metal prices fell 0.2% but rose 2.7% on the week. Iron ore is down to around $118.50/t.
  • There are no events in Australia today but tomorrow key retail sales data print and on Wednesday February CPI.
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