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A$ Edges Higher, Limited Impact From RBA SoMP And Retail Sales Miss

AUD

AUD/USD hasn't reacted a great deal to the RBA SoMP or the Q3 real retail sales data. We continue to sit just under 0.6300, slightly above NY closing levels. This is line with other majors, which have edged higher against the USD in the first part of the session.

  • The forecast changes outlined in the SoMP look to be largely as expected, with inflation pushed higher, while growth lower.
  • Q3 retail sales volumes were weaker than expected at 0.2%, versus +0.4% expected. Note also Q2 was revised down to a +1% rise from +1.4% originally reported. Recent trends around less spending on food/household goods, against a an expansion in outdoor spending (cafes & restaurants and department stores) looks to be intact.
  • The AU-US 2yr spread is hitting fresh cyclical lows, near -140bps at this stage. This isn't impacting AUD sentiment at this stage, while other cross-asset drivers look fairly muted in the first part of the session.

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