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Free AccessA Familiar Names Drives Front End Rally
As alluded to in a previous bullet, it would seem that the RBA call of Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans (“hikes of 50 in July; 25 in August; pauses in September/October; 25’s in November; December; February for a peak terminal of 2.35%”) has supported the front end of the AUD rates curve, with Dec IBs now pricing in a cash rate of ~3.45%, per BBG’s WIRP function (down from circa 3.85% ahead of RBA Governor Lowe’s Tuesday address). IBs still price in ~260bp of tightening across the remaining 6 meetings of ’22. A reminder that Governor Lowe sounded sceptical that the Bank would deliver such a pace of tightening when questioned on the matter on Tuesday. A quick reminder that he has referenced 2.50% as a level that the cash rate will likely reach at some point. YM last deals +5.0 as a result, while XM is +2.0, with a relatively parallel round of richening observed in the 7+-Year zone of the cash ACGB curve. Bills run 6-15bp richer through the reds, with the front end leading on the back of Evans’ call, although the contracts operate 1-2 ticks shy of their respective session peaks.
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.