A few items of note, scanning the documents:....>

FED: A few items of note, scanning the documents:

- Not quite formal QE - in statement, "will increase its holdings of Treasury

securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at

least at the current pace" suggests that tapering is over (as per $80bln/monthly

Tsy announce, equiv to $4bln daily pace currently run by NY Fed) and a more

formal month-to-month plan is in place. But "to sustain smooth market

functioning" not quite the transition to easing monetary conditions a formal QE

program would seem to entail. This is going to be one for the Powell presser.

- Dot path flat as a pancake in 2020-2021, two members went for hikes in 2022:

one +100bps, one +25bps. But a bit surprising the long-term median stayed very

steady at 2.5% (8 members going for that exactly, three above, five below). This

is only slightly different from December, pre-COVID: 8 went for 2.5% then, 4

above, 4 below. And again, NONE below 2%.

- By same token, longer-run growth not really impaired by COVID (1.8% longer-run

median with similar range to Dec's 1.9% median). Another Q for the presser since

many on FOMC have said they are concerned about permanent impairment.